Israel Matzav

Is the Iranian opposition an improvement?

Please forgive the self-interest.

While I'm sure Iranians would be better off if there is regime change, those of us in the West, and particularly in Israel, need to be asking ourselves whether Iran without Ahmadinejad will pose as great a danger to us as Iran with Ahmadinejad. If it will, then we're best off not expending the political capital on regime change in Iran, and instead concentrating on other ways of stopping Iran's drive for nuclear weapons. Case in point: opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi. We already know about his past (look at the picture). Here's some disturbing news about his future. It's from a Time Magazine article on Iran's rejection of the P - 5+1 offer on its nuclear weapons.

Still, the proposed deal caused an uproar in Iran, where not only conservatives, but also pragmatists and opposition leaders accused the West of trying to steal the country's nuclear patrimony. "Iran's response is that it will not give even one milligram of its enriched uranium to be changed into 20% enriched uranium by foreigners," wrote on columnist in the hardline newspaper Kayhan on Monday. "These American cowboys, old British foxes, and Zionist child murderers want to use this ploy to take Iran's uranium and not give it back." Some of the strongest criticism of the deal came from Mir Hossein Moussavi, the leading opposition presidential candidate in the disputed June election. "If the promises given [to the West] are realized, then the hard work of thousands of scientists would be ruined," he said. Conservatives had accused moderates of treason over previous attempts to reach a nuclear agreement with the West; now the country's embattled opposition leaders are getting their own back, perhaps fearful that rapprochement between the West and Ahmadinejad would reinforce the regime that has cracked down hard since the election. The breadth of opposition to the deal within Tehran suggests that dealing with the U.S. may be politically radioactive for the Iranian government.

Is he really any better than Ahmadinejad? Maybe. But his comment has to make you wonder.

The silver lining in this cloud:

The biggest winner if the Vienna agreement collapses could be Israel, whose leaders had been publicly skeptical of the deal for its failure to address the question of ongoing Iranian enrichment. Israeli leaders also feared that a deal offering cooperation and further safeguards but not removing from Iran the capability to build a bomb would leave Israel's more hardline position internationally isolated. Israeli military officials heaped scorn on Iran's counter-proposal. "We hope Obama won't play the village idiot and accept," a senior Israeli military source told TIME. "This is bazaar bargaining at its best. It takes the essence out of the ability to control and supervise Iranian enriched uranium." But Iran's negative response may have reassured the Israelis. After a week in which his Defense Minister had questioned the deal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday called it a "positive first step" — which, of course, Iran appears unwilling to take.

Heh.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:25 AM